- Red China seeking to pretend they do not have a failing economy by attacking Taiwan as a diversion and to control Taiwan's resources, especially computer chips
- Failed Dystopian leadership from Washington, DC that is of Biblical scope of destruction on the world stage
- Bad actors like Russia, Iran, North Korea about to exploit the failed leadership in Washington, DC
- The always present threat of human error and miscalculation and the Law of Unintended Consequences that surrounds the possibility of nuclear war
A good summary of this event can be found here and here.
For an excellent analysis of the technical issues of the false alert, see Here's how Hawii's emergency alert design led to a false alarm on The Verge.
Serious software and hardware design issues also contributed to this disaster. Scott Robertson has an outstanding human-centered design (HCI) article for how to fix that part here.
For what an actual ballistic missile strike on Hawaii would look like, see here.
The GOOD NEWS is that there is a simple fix: ONLY HIRE COMPETENT EMPLOYEES TO DO THAT JOB.
For the Congressional Research Service analysis of the false alert, see here.
You Can Survive a Nuclear Ballistic Missile Strike
What if the false incoming ballistic missile warning in Hawaii had been real?We can survive a nuclear hit and the fallout.
There are so many things you can do to to increase your, and your family's, chances of survival.
Here, I will only list the top four steps (and a bonus step if you have the resources) to surviving a nuclear strike.
Water: Store a years supply of fresh water in Waterbricks.
Food: Store a years supply of packaged food to which you only need to add water to have a nutritious meal. One good source is MyPatriotSupply, PatriotPantry.com in Muncie, IN, 866 229 0927.
https://www.narescue.com/military-products/casualty-response-kits
Anti-Radiation Tablets: K103 Anti-Radiation Tablets to block radiation fallout absorption by your body, and especially the thyroid. Fake anti-radiation tables were sold to many in California after the Fukushima disaster. Only order the real ones here: K103-USA.com, 800 537 1339,, Medical Corps, 410 Front Street, #3, OH 45750.
Here is an excellent description from the K103 website about the importance of REAL K103.
"If there is a nuclear event, and you are down-wind, you need to take KIO3 or KI before the radioactive plume reaches you. If you do not have KIO3 or KI at the time of the event, then it is most likely too late to take a thyroid blocker unless the authorities can reach you with the proper dose during fallout conditions. Both KIO3 and KI are thyroid blockers and are used world-wide to help prevent radioactive damage to the thyroid in the event of a nuclear incident. If a nuclear bomb detonates or a nuclear power plant is compromised or has a melt-down, then radioactive iodine is always released into the air and environment.
Radioactive Iodine (I-131) can destroy the thyroid of humans and animals. Even small amounts of I-131 can cause cancer of the thyroid. By taking KIO3 the thyroid becomes saturated with "good iodine" and cannot absorb the "bad iodine" I-131.
Yes, animals or pets can take KIO3 too."
Civil Defense Redux
Study history. Civil defense has been critical from the beginning of time. If you don't prepare, protect, defend and practice, you don't last long.For most people in this nation when you mention civil defense, they think of the "duck and cover" training from their childhood.
Civil defense is far more than that.
For a quick review, see my 2005 Civil Defense Redux post here.
Here is one important quote from that article:
"Disasters happen, and taking steps to be prepared is common sense.
Fires, floods, earthquakes, windstorms, power outages, and now terrorist attacks happen. It's a story as old as the Bible.
Sadly, there is nothing to smile about with the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency incoming ballistic missile attack.
It did not need to happen.
It must never happen again.
As there were no initial reports of panic other than the father who stuffed his children into a sewer manhole in a video that went viral that day, I first wrote "That there was not mass panic, mayhem and accidental injury and death is a miracle." Update: There was.
The Real Cause of the Hawaii False Nuclear Alert
Like other state and local Emergency Operations Centers (EOC's), the people working there are often not hired due to their aptitude, skills and experience in the field of civil defense.How do I know this?
In the 1980's I visited multiple EOC's in numerous American states. In places like North Dakota, Florida, California, Florida and Georgia, they were extremely professional operations run by true professionals. Managers and line employees all had decades of experience in emergency management, civil defense, and disaster preparedness.
Then there were the others.
Proof?
"We are disappointed however that one key employee, the person who transmitted the false alert is refusing to cooperate with our investigation," said Lisa Fowlkes, bureau chief of the FCC's Public Safety and Homeland Security Bureau. "We hope that person will reconsider."
I also taught at the Emergency Management Institute. There, the students who came in from all over the country were first rate, mostly because they were first responders.
But attending those classes there were also the multiple incompetents who had been appointed by politicians.
Now I live in Carroll County, MD and am blessed with an EOC filled with competent, experienced, dedicated professionals.
The proof is that this false alarm went out at all.
What has been revealed since reinforces the point.
1. One person alone was able to send out the alert that caused panic state-wide. There was no second check on the alert message being sent. There is a reason the U.S. Air Force always has TWO officers with the key to launch thermonuclear weapons in missile silos and BOTH have to agree and act in concert. So, the most basic two-tiered decision process was not in place.
2. The alert was sent to many...but not all who needed to receive it. This indicates to me that HEMA did not prepare thoroughly in years past to create a comprehensive list of ALL who needed to be notified. Make a comprehensive list NOW.
3. Those who make HUGE life and death decisions MUST KNOW THEIR PASSWORDS. The Hawaii Governor, the decision maker responsible to immediately reach all the panicked Hawaiian citizens that the alert was false, did not know his password.
The Government Self Reviews
That's good, but limited.
No doubt they will identify the systemic failures and recommend changes. Some of those changes will happen. But, based on my prior experience, I am not confident that the most important change, the firing of the incompetent employees and replacing them with professional and competent employees, will happen.
And the Federal Communications Commission and Congress are investigating. What will really change in Hawaii's EOC and the other EOC's?
Having read the Presidential 911 Report and remembering how most recommendations to correct that disaster were ignored, I'm not hopeful
The Governor of Hawaii, the same person who employed the incompetent employee who caused this mega national security failure, assures us that this will never happen again.
That concerns me.
For starters, Governor, redesign your control panel. Here is an outstanding analysis of the problem with your current "Alert Button."
Implement this fix (along with hiring competent employees, instituting a two-tier emergency alert alert process, thorough and vigorous training and so forth) you are well on your way to ensuring that this never happens again.
And for a good primer on civil defense and how it is critical to your family, see here.
We Can Do Better
Here is a link to a worthwhile civil defense primer to help prevent this kind of tragedy in the future.I have been involved in civil defense for 40 years, the past 15 on this Poetslife blog. Here are links on this Poetslife blog on various aspects of civil defense that offer policy, practical photo, and procedures to create robust civil defense options for all the threat matrix in America.
Emergency Exercise
Civil Defense Redux
Emergency Exercise Tornado
Emergency Management National Disaster Medical Exercise
Emergency Management Study Scholarships
How to Prepare for a Natural Disaster
Business Continuity Disaster Recovery Plan Outline
How to Handle a Huge Hurricane
CBRNE - Low Probability, High Impact
EPLEX Emergency Plan Exercise
Church Emergency Evacuation and Lock Down Plan
Roll Up ISIS Social Media Weapons
When State Hackers Take Aim at the Power Grid
Church Emergency Plan Template
Emergency Preparedness Expo
Nuclear Weapons Effects
Volunteer Mobilization Center
Idiot's Guide to Disaster Preparedness
Active Shooter
America Rising - Charity
America Rising - Hope
America Rising - Faith
1983 Salt Lake City Great Flood Reflections
Lack of Action by the Trump Administration on Civil Defense
As Vice President of the Board of Directors of The American Civil Defense Association (TADCA), three times I have sent the Trump White House several issues of the recent issues of Civil Defense Journal of the American Civil Defense Association and not even gotten a note back to say they received them...so who knows.
Maybe one day we can come close to the civil defense program in Switzerland.
The Trump Administration has, at least, offered a brief paragraph in their 2017 national security policy to promote "a culture of preparedness." It's a first step.
For an excellent analysis of how long Hawaii has been unprepared for a nuclear strike, see here.
Michael Mabee, author of the Civil Defense Book, has more faith in the Feds to get it right.
"What we should take from the Hawaii false missile alert? It is unacceptable that in the U.S. we have an emergency alert and “nobody knew what to do.” We must fix this. Building a culture of preparedness – a civil defense culture – is a critical task for the national security of the country."
My Twitter Tweets the Day of the Hawaii Catastrophic Alert Failure
I was on Twitter when I read this Tweet from Emily Batty.Note: Unfortunately, I was not able to copy many of these posts to this blog.
- Hawaii's so-called fix for the Emergency Management alert Fiasco is to close down the system. Wrong. My guess is that office is filled with political hacks sadly.
- https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/952258396819881984 … Hawaii has a creepy voice announcing incoming ballistic missiles. Just lame. They need to record another version of this message with a HUMAN, not a computer, voice. Get your act together, @Hawaii_EMA
- https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/952258396819881984 … Hawaii has a creepy voice announcing incoming ballistic missiles. Just lame. They need to record another version of this message with a HUMAN, not a computer, voice. Get your act together, @Hawaii_EMA
- North Korea Nuclear EMP Attack: An Existential Threat https://theamericancivildefense.com/2017/10/13/north-korea-nuclear-emp-attack-an-existential-threat/ … via @pollytacdaorg
https://a.msn.com/r/2/AAuFYxG?m=en-us … But has @Hawaii_EMA practiced it over and over so the same mistake does not happen again?- North Korea Nuclear EMP Attack: An Existential Threat https://theamericancivildefense.com/2017/10/13/north-korea-nuclear-emp-attack-an-existential-threat/ … via @pollytacdaorg
https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/952258396819881984 … Hawaii has a creepy voice announcing incoming ballistic missiles. Just lame. They need to record another version of this message with a HUMAN, not a computer, voice. Get your act together, @Hawaii_EMA
- Emergency Operations Centers often have political hacks (employees with connections, not skills) working there, as my guess is the case in @Hawaii_EMA . Many steps must be taken to correct that fatal error. Here is one:
- Hawaii releases timeline of what transpired after false ballistic missile warning http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2645874 via @dcexaminer
The Hawaiian government released the following timeline of what transpired that day.
8:07 a.m. – A warning test was triggered statewide by the State Warning Point, HI-EMA.
8:10 a.m. – State Adjutant Maj. Gen. Joe Logan, validated with the U.S. Pacific Command that there was no missile launch. Honolulu Police Department notified of the false alarm by HI-EMA.
8:13 a.m. – State Warning Point issues a cancellation of the Civil Danger Warning Message. This would have prevented the initial alert from being rebroadcast to phones that may not have received it yet. For instance, if a phone was not on at 8:07 a.m., if someone was out of range and has since came into cell coverage (Hikers, Mariners, etc.) and/or people getting off a plane.
8:20 a.m. – HI-EMA issues public notification of cancellation via their Facebook and Twitter accounts.
8:24 a.m. – Governor Ige retweets HI-EMA’s cancellation notice.
8:30 a.m. – Governor posts cancellation notification to his Facebook page.
8:45 a.m. – After getting authorization from FEMA Integral Public Alert and Warning System, HIEMA issued a “Civil Emergency Message” remotely.
The following action was executed by the Emergency Alert System (EAS):
1. EAS message over Local TV/Radio Audio Broadcast & Television Crawler Banner.
“False Alarm. There is no missile threat to Hawaii.”
“False Alarm. There is no missile threat or danger to the State of Hawaii. Repeat. There is no
missile threat or danger to the State of Hawaii. False Alarm.”
2. Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA)
“False Alarm. There is no missile threat or danger to the State of Hawaii.”
9:30 a.m. – Governor makes initial media notification.
9:34 a.m. – Governor’s message posted to his Facebook and Twitter accounts.